Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyrese Maxey of the Philadelphia 76ers
NBA Player Prop & Pick
|Odds||u21.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
Since returning from his mid-season injury, Tyrese Maxey’s production has declined as he’s adjusting to his new role off the bench. In 18 games as a reserve, Maxey is averaging 20.7 PRA, failing to clear this line in 10 of those contests.
Today’s matchup against the Heat pits Maxey and the 76ers against the NBA’s fifth-best team defense. Specifically for the Kentucky product, Miami excels defensively against pick-and-roll ball handlers and against the fastbreak, rating first and fourth respectively in points allowed.
Those two play types represent close to 65% of Maxey’s point production this season.
And with both the 76ers and Heat playing at a bottom-five pace this season, this game is likely to be exceptionally slow. I have Maxey projected at 18 PRA for this one, and I would play this line down to under 20.5 PRA.
Pick: Under 21.5 PRA (-115) | Bet to 20.5 PRA
Terry Rozier, Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
|Odds||u30.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-113)|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
I’ll get this out of the way first: This is not an ideal matchup to fade any of the Hornets. The Pistons defense has been awful this season.
That being said, this line is not reflective of Terry Rozier’s current role. Gordon Hayward is playing his best basketball of the season, having scored at least 20 points in four of his last five games. Kelly Oubre is back from injury, resuming his high-volume shot-taking role (albeit off the bench). And Lamelo Ball is continuing to stuff the stat sheet.
This leaves Rozier, whose usage rate has dropped to 22.7% over the last five games (compared to 27% previously). And he’s stayed under this line in three of those five games, including back-to-back efforts of 16 and 17 PRA.
Even without PJ Washington, the Hornets have more healthy weapons offensively, with Ball remaining the focal point. In a meeting of two cellar-dwelling teams, I have Rozier projected at 26 PRA.